Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.